Career Center Powered by GreatInsuranceJobs.com
NU Online News Service, Oct. 12, 3:10 P.M. EDT
ORLANDO, FLA.—Economic cycles and underwriting cycles historically have little connection with one another, an industry expert said at a gathering of surplus lines insurers and brokers here.
Robert P. Hartwig, president of the New York-based Insurance Information Institute, provided that analysis during a speech Friday at the annual meeting of the National Association of Professional Surplus Lines Offices, Ltd. during the Derek Hughes/NAPSLO Educational Foundation Lecture.
Mr. Hartwig devoted part of his time to the identification of industries and regions with potential growth prospects for excess and surplus lines market participants in the near term.
“The reality is there’s not a strong association between what goes on the in the economy and what goes on in our business,” he added, noting the recessions have historically occurred together with both hard and soft markets.
Highlighting the workers’ compensation line as one area impacted by the economic recession, Mr. Hartwig said the underwriting cycle has had a bigger effect for insurers.
“As wages, salaries and payrolls fall, that is something that is contributing to a decline in workers’ comp premiums, although most of that is driven by what is going on in rate—very competitive pricing in workers’ comp,” he said.
While industry capital plummeted with investment losses last year, and capital losses are typically a precursor of harder markets, “something else has to change—the perception of risk,” he said.
Elevated insurance combined ratios—in the 115-to-120 range—have historically changed risk perceptions and heralded the return of hard market pricing, but Mr. Hartwig said he doesn’t foresee the industry coming close to those levels in 2009.
Last year, he said the p&c insurance industry ran a 101 combined ratio overall (excluding mortgage and financial guaranty insurers). This year, the industry has been running a 99.5 combined ratio—and even adding a few points to eliminate boosts from reserve releases related to prior years won’t bring the numbers to anywhere near the dire levels they reached a decade ago, he said.
Offering a different interpretation of combined ratio numbers at a later Friday session, Jim Carey, president and chief executive officer of Admiral Insurance Company in Cherry Hill, N.J., started his own analysis with the reported industry combined ratio of 105 for 2008.
Taking out two points of catastrophe losses that probably won’t recur, Mr. Carey said, “in this business, if you don’t get a price increase, your claims go up 5 or 6 percent for inflation—taking a 103 starting combined ratio to 108 or 109 for 2009.
Another year of flat pricing and loss inflation brings the combined ratio figure to 112-to-115 for 2010, he said. “We’re heading for some pretty tough times [and] underwriting losses will erode capital.”
While all companies won’t be equally affected, Mr. Carey asserted, “There will be pain. There will be noise, and that’s what always happens. For the markets to change, you’ve got to feel the pain.”
At the earlier session, Mr. Hartwig said that “something that’s not being watched at all—something that can turn the market—is an emerging tort threat.”
“There has not been one iota of tort reform” since the makeup of Congress changed in 2006, he said.
While industry commentators periodically point to insurance company failures as a precursor of a market turn, Mr. Hartwig isn’t expecting that kind of fallout to occur directly as a result of the economic recession.
“The industry tends to weather economic downturns well,” he said, pointing to statistics from a recent A.M. Best report prepared for NAPSLO that shows the No. 1 cause for insolvency is loss reserve deficiency, not economic phenomena.