The insurance industry has one thing in common with major league baseball--both enjoy a cherished exemption from federal antitrust law. Still, baseball gets away with a lot more than insurers and brokers could ever hope to in managing their business. Indeed, imagine for a moment what insurance would be like if baseball's standard operating procedure prevailed!
For one, you wouldn't have a choice of where to work--at least until you've completed seven years of "major league" service and earned your free agency.
To start, you would be drafted right out of college. Say you were drafted out of the College of Insurance by Marsh. The broker could then assign you to their farm teams anywhere around the country, then move you up through the system until you eventually are promoted to the New York headquarters office!
Of course, you might also be traded, so don't get too comfortable, as New York's Marsh HQ might ship you off to Aon in Chicago for three promising cat modelers. Or The Hartford might send you packing to Fireman's Fund for an up and coming inland marine underwriter.
Once you go free agent, however, you'd be sitting pretty. If your underwriting, claims-adjusting or sales skills are top of the game, you could write your own ticket. You could be the A-Rod of your field.
Meanwhile, insurers and brokers could enjoy franchise protection. Sorry, Travelers, but you are not allowed to write in New York--that's AIG's territory. Fireman's Fund would control San Francisco. CNA would own the rights to Chicago.
What a crazy way to do business, but that's essentially how it works in baseball. Rather than lure the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates to play in Brooklyn, America's fourth-largest city, we are restricted to a Single-A Mets farm team (my beloved Brooklyn Cyclones) because of territorial veto rights enjoyed by the Mets and Yankees.
Obviously, I am off on this tangent because of Monday's "national holiday"--Opening Day!!! Here is how I see the coming season playing out.
--NL East: The Mets scrap their way past the pesky Phillies and fading Braves to take the division. Santana wins the Cy Young. Pedro earns a two-year extension with 16 solid wins. Carlos Beltran wins the MVP. The Marlins and Nationals barely manage 100 wins between them.
--NL Central: Sweet Lou leads the Cubs to the playoffs, after a close call against the up and coming Reds. The Brewers fade by the All-Star break, the Cards collapse by July 4, while the Pirates are out of it by Memorial Day.
--NL West: Joe Torre proves he can win without the Yankees by taking the division in a close, three-way race, beating out the pitching-rich, but hitting-poor wild card D-backs on the last day of the season, after the Padres fall behind in the final week. Colorado's championship defense quickly evaporates in Denver's thin air, while the Bonds-less Giants finish with the worst record in baseball.
--AL East: The Red Sox simply have too much depth and talent not to win 100 games and take the division by eight games over the improved but not quite ready for prime time Toronto Blue Jays, and by 10 games over the aging Yanks, who are betrayed by their pitching. (Pettite's back/shoulder/elbow all break down mid-season, Mussina proves he's through, Wang is only average and the two phenoms, Hughes and Kennedy, are only .500, but with lots of promise.) Tampa Bay finally gets out of the cellar with a decent, but inexperienced team, as former Cyclones ace Scott Kazmir wins the Cy Young. Baltimore barely beats out the Giants for worst record in baseball.
--AL Central: What talent! The Tigers earn the wild card with their modern Murders Row, but fall short for the division title against the superior pitching of the Indians. The ever- scrappy Twins, sans-Santana, still somehow manage to compete, but fade down the stretch. The White Sox fire their quirky manager after falling off the map midseason, while the Royals barely miss losing 100 games once again.
--AL West: Another tough call, but I go with the experience of the California Angels, with Vladimer Guerrero winning the MVP. Seattle, flush with pitching, finishes a close second and just misses the wild card. Oakland, in rebuilding mode, loses 90 games, while Texas loses 100.
NL Playoffs: Mets beat D-Backs, L.A. beats the Cubs, Mets take the Dodgers in 7, ruining Torre's New York homecoming.
AL Playoffs: Boston sweeps the Tigers, Cleveland squeezes by the Angels, Boston beats the Indians in 7.
World Series: Mets top Boston in game 7--the final game played at Shea Stadium--on a pinch hit home run by former Cyclones star Angel Pagan.
What do you folks think???
Comments (7)
What a sentimental forecast, Friedman! Shame on you, a man who has lived with actuaries for lo these many years, and who would therefore be expected to take a rational approach! You see the world through Mets-colored glases (la vie en Mets, as Edith Piaf would say)!
I can understand you picking the Mets to win their division, even though anyone who is not a denizen of Shea could fail to forget last year's choke job to the grittier Phils.
But the Dodgers? Totally maudlin sentiment, based on your feelings for the beloved Joe Torre! And you pick the Jints for the cellar based on your dislike for the reviled Barry Bonds.
Assuming the Metsies do get into the series, why expect them to triumph over the juggernaut Sox, kings of clutch?
Baseball is a game of math and science, Sir! Not a matter of maudlin sentiment! Any actuary would agree.
Posted by David Katz | March 28, 2008 10:04 AM
Posted on March 28, 2008 10:04
Ah, Mr. Baseball. Your admiration for the Mets is laudable, but your predictions are, in part, delusional.
The NL East will indeed be won by New York, with the Phillies falling at least 5 games short. They probably get the wild card. Beltran will have a good year, but more likely the MVP of the league will be Rollins, or even Pujols. Cy Young to Santana.
The NL Central will go to a surprising Cardinals team; they always seem to pull themselves off the scrap heap. The Cubs will lead for most of the season, only to succumb to the Curse of the Goat at season's end.
The NL West is a tossup, but pitching tends to prevail over the season, so you have to believe that Arizona will emerge on top. Joe Torre will lead a competent, but ultimately not championship team to 2nd or 3rd place. Colorado will prove to have been a statistical artifact in 2007 and the Giants will not distinguish themselves.
Your take on the AL East is surprisingly accurate, but your Cyclone-prone prejudices show in your selection of Kazmir as the Cy Young winner. He'll have a good year--by Tampa Bay standards, but ultimately it will probably be Mr. Beckett who takes home the honors.
Detroit appears poised to take the AL Central with a murderous lineup and some good pitching. Cleveland looms as the possible wild card.
In another surprise, you have accurately forecasted the AL West. Vlady could get the MVP, but Big Papi will also be in the conversation, along with one of the Detroit sluggers.
NL Playoffs: Mets and Phils can't play (same division), so the Mets will defeat the Cards in five games, while Phils lose out to the Diamondbacks (pitching prevails in the playoffs, too). Mets then edge the Diamondbacks on their first-ever no-hitter thrown by Mr. Santana.
AL Playoffs: Boston once again dispatches the Indians, while the Angels lose a close one to Detroit. Boston's pitching is good enough to squeak by Detroit to the World Series.
World Series: Shades of 1986? Goes to seven games and may depend on who has the final home game. If at Shea, Mets win on an impossible walk-off homer from the struggling Carlos Delgado, as Mookie Wilson looks on. If at Fenway, Red Sox take it on a killer performance by John Lester and a 9th-inning collapse by Billy Wagner.
Posted by Ara Trembly | March 28, 2008 10:28 AM
Posted on March 28, 2008 10:28
In baseball, parties enter into contracts and honor them. The parties don't dishonor, steal, bribe, or extort to further enrich themselves at the expense of others.
In insurance, of course, none of that ever happens, either.
Posted by Don Bealer | March 28, 2008 10:56 AM
Posted on March 28, 2008 10:56
Running the insurance business like baseball...mmm... I wonder how contingency fee clauses in the free agents' contract would read?
I like your predictions, and as a die-hard Mets fan, you wear your alligance on your sleeve.
My bold prediction will be that the Cubs will end 100 years of misery on the north side of Chicago. After posting this I do realize that I may be securing disaster for the men in blue pinstripes as others have done in the past, such as William Sianis bringing his billy goat to the park in 1945, only to be rejected at the gate.
An outraged Sianis, put a hex (curse) on the Cubs, proclaiming the Cubs would never win a championship again. Sianis' grandson and owner of the famous Billy Goat Tavern has since apologized for his father's transgressions.
In 1969, the Cubs had a comfortable 8 1/2 game lead in the NL East going into the last 3 weeks of the season. During a game when the Cubs were playing the Mets at Shea, like divine intervention a black cat rose from the depths of the Cubs dugout, went straight for Ron Santo, stared him down and paced in front of the Cubs dugout before it was scared back throught the hole in came through.
The Cubs then completely collapsed and the Amazin' Mets were born, winning the World Series in '69.
And most recently in 2003, when the Cubs were only 5 outs from heading to the World Series, Steve Bartman, a mild mannered, nerdy, Cubs fan complete with walkman headphones cast the latest spell as he reached up and interfered with Moises Alou catching a foul ball.
The result was a missed opportunity for an out, and the Florida Marlins rallied from being down 3 games to 2 in the best of 7 to winning the NL pennant. The ball that Bartman interfered eventually was blown up outside Harry Carey's bar and grill.
Whether these were all separate occurances or one curse which manifested itself in different forms, one thing is for certain.
100 years...enough is enough. LET'S GO CUBBIES!
Posted by Chris Luke | March 28, 2008 12:56 PM
Posted on March 28, 2008 12:56
Mr. Friedman, for the most part, your predictions are fairly objective, but your bias toward the Mets and anyone who has played for the Cyclones is clouding your judgment.
I hope you're not the baseball equivalent of an underwriter, or your team will have far too many losses.
To predict that Scott Kazmir, a very good pitcher, will beat out superior pitchers Eric Bedard or Josh Beckett for Cy Young is a bit over the top. A big part of winning the Cy Young is getting wins and the Rays are not at the level of the Red Sox to be able to help him with the run support he'll need.
Plus, the Rays play in a hitter's park and Bedard is now in pitcher friendly Safeco (Insurance) Field on a much better team that now has a solid hitting lineup top to bottom--assuming Richie Sexson continues on from spring training and returns to his normal form.
SAMMY CYCLONES RESPONDS:
All I can say is I am a sucker for ex-Cyclones! I follow them up the minor league chain like they are my own kids....Most crash and burn long before making it to AA, let alone AAA or the majors, but Kazmir is special, and he will win a Cy Young (although I admit it might come after he signs as a free agent down the road with the Yankees, rather than with the Rays....)
Posted by David | March 31, 2008 12:23 PM
Posted on March 31, 2008 12:23
I don't follow baseball as avidly since the last strike, but since I've been essentially a White Sox fan---I have to agree, Sam. I think this will be Mr. Guillen's last year as manager, too!
As the product of a mixed marriage (Mom is a Cubs fan, Dad was a Sox fan), I have given up my young rebellion against all things Cubs and I hope they DO win this year!! (If only for the long-suffering fans and the aforementioned Ron Santo!!)
P.S. LOL to Mr. Katz and his "La Vie en Mets" comment!
Posted by Gail | March 31, 2008 2:02 PM
Posted on March 31, 2008 14:02
As a long-time Red Sox fan who has relished the opportunity to be obnoxious the last four seasons, I am amused at the predictions of a Mets triumph over the Bostonians in the World Series.
Re: the possibility of a game 7 at Shea--given the National League's apparent inability to win an All Star Game--this seems unlikely.
More likely scenario: Wagner makes the mistake of pitching to Ortiz in the late innings at Fenway and watches said mistake land on the good side of the Pesky Pole in the right field seats.
The weather's warming up and baseball is back. All is right with the world.
Posted by Tim Dodge | April 1, 2008 8:27 AM
Posted on April 1, 2008 08:27