A View From The Press Box

If Sen. McCain is elected President, Florida, Louisiana, California and other states vulnerable to massive windstorm or earthquake losses can forget about seeing the cat fund idea being pushed by Allstate and its lobbyist, ProtectingAmerica.org, ever coming to fruition.

Rudy ran hard on the idea of establishing a national cat fund to back up state property insurance facilities, even though he claims to be against government intrusion into the private market. For example, despite the fact that some 50 million Americans lack health insurance, while tens of millions of others struggle to make premium or co-payments, Rudy mocks calls for a national health insurance system. Yet he saw no contradiction in calling for a national catastrophe insurance fund.

Meanwhile, straight-talkin' John McCain resisted the temptation to pander for Florida's crucial primary votes, stating emphatically that a national cat fund is not the answer to the state's property insurance woes.

"I do understand the problem and I do know how FEMA has to be fixed, and it has to be fixed so that we can perform the rightful role of government, which is to help people whenever there is a natural or manmade disaster or catastrophe," Sen. McCain told the Florida Sun-Sentinel on Jan. 23.

He said he would vote against HR 3355, the “Homeowners Defense Act of 2007,” sponsored by a pair of Florida Democrats in the U.S. House (Reps. Ron Klein and Tim Mahoney), adding that the bill has no chance of passing the U.S. Senate--something I have said for two years now.

Mr. Giuliani tried to capitalize on Sen. McCain's unpopular stance in one of his TV ads.

"Some say we don't need a national catastrophe fund--that FEMA can handle disasters," the announcer says. "Others say they haven't looked at it yet and want to sit down with insurance companies first." Heaven forbid!

Meanwhile, Mitt Romney did what he does best--talk out of both sides of his mouth--stating that while "the cat fund makes sense to me," he doesn't want a truly national disaster insurance plan because that would mean "very low-risk homeowners, or low-risk states, subsidizing high-risk homeowners or high-risk states." He wants a regional plan instead--which pretty much mirrors Sen. McCain's most recent musings on the subject.

In any case, Sen. McCain's firm opposition to the cat fund idea did not cost him politically, which shows you the issue has lost its potency after two quiet hurricane seasons. American voters have a short memory indeed.

In fact, despite his position on the cat fund, Sen. McCain managed to secure the 11th hour endorsement of Gov. Charlie Crist (talk about jumping on the bandwagon!), and crushed Rudy, most likely driving the former New York mayor out of the race. Mr. Romney came in second, but Sen. McCain clearly has the momentum now going into Super Tuesday.

That means the best bet--indeed, perhaps the only hope--for those backing a national cat fund is to vote Democratic in November, as Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton both say they support the concept. Fat chance, right?

However, don't write the cat fund off as a political factor just yet. If another major hurricane hits the U.S. mainland between now and Election Day, and Sen. McCain sticks to his stand against a national cat fund, that could conceivably cost him Florida in the general election. If he loses Florida, he almost certainly can forget about the White House.

What do you folks think?